Estimates and Projections of the Global Economic Cost of 29 Cancers in 204 Countries and Territories From 2020 to 2050

被引:280
作者
Chen, Simiao [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Cao, Zhong [4 ,5 ]
Prettner, Klaus [6 ,7 ]
Kuhn, Michael [6 ,8 ]
Yang, Juntao [9 ]
Jiao, Lirui [10 ]
Wang, Zhuoran [3 ]
Li, Weimin [11 ,12 ]
Geldsetzer, Pascal [13 ]
Baernighausen, Till [1 ,2 ,3 ,14 ]
Bloom, David E. [14 ]
Wang, Chen [3 ,15 ]
机构
[1] Heidelberg Univ, Heidelberg Inst Global Hlth, Fac Med, Heidelberg, Germany
[2] Univ Hosp, Heidelberg Univ, Heidelberg, Germany
[3] Chinese Acad Med Sci & Peking Union Med Coll, Beijing, Peoples R China
[4] Tsinghua Univ, Inst Artificial Intelligence, Beijing, Peoples R China
[5] Tsinghua Univ, Beijing Natl Res Ctr Informat Sci & Technol, Dept Automat, State Key Lab Intelligent Technol & Syst, Beijing, Peoples R China
[6] Univ Vienna, Vienna Inst Demog, Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Wittgenstein Ctr,OeAW, Vienna, Austria
[7] Vienna Univ Econ & Business WU, Dept Econ, Vienna, Austria
[8] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Laxenburg, Austria
[9] Chinese Acad Med Sci & Peking Union Med Coll, Inst Basic Med Sci, State Key Lab Med Mol Biol, Beijing, Peoples R China
[10] Chinese Acad Engn, New York, NY, Peoples R China
[11] Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Dept Resp & Crit Care Med, Neuenheimer Feld130-3, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China
[12] Sichuan Univ, West China Hosp, Inst Resp Hlth, Frontiers Sci Ctr Dis Related Mol Network, Chengdu, Sichuan, Peoples R China
[13] Stanford Univ, Dept Med, Div Primary Care & Populat Hlth, Stanford, CA USA
[14] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Global Hlth & Populat, Boston, MA USA
[15] Natl Clin Res Ctr Resp Dis, Beijing, Peoples R China
基金
美国国家卫生研究院; 比尔及梅琳达.盖茨基金会;
关键词
MACROECONOMIC BURDEN; MORTALITY; DISEASES; EUROPE; WORLD; CHINA;
D O I
10.1001/jamaoncol.2022.7826
中图分类号
R73 [肿瘤学];
学科分类号
100214 ;
摘要
Importance Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries' economic growth. However, the global economic cost of cancers and its worldwide distribution have yet to be studied.Objective To estimate and project the economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories.Design, Setting, and Participants A decision analytical model that incorporates economic feedback in assessing health outcomes associated with the labor force and investment. A macroeconomic model was used to account for (1) the association of cancer-related mortality and morbidity with labor supply; (2) age-sex-specific differences in education, experience, and labor market participation of those who are affected by cancers; and (3) the diversion of cancer treatment expenses from savings and investments. Data were collected on April 25, 2022.Main Outcomes and Measures Economic cost of 29 cancers across countries and territories. Costs are presented in international dollars at constant 2017 prices.Results The estimated global economic cost of cancers from 2020 to 2050 is $25.2 trillion in international dollars (at constant 2017 prices), equivalent to an annual tax of 0.55% on global gross domestic product. The 5 cancers with the highest economic costs are tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (15.4%); colon and rectum cancer (10.9%); breast cancer (7.7%); liver cancer (6.5%); and leukemia (6.3%). China and the US face the largest economic costs of cancers in absolute terms, accounting for 24.1% and 20.8% of the total global burden, respectively. Although 75.1% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, their share of the economic cost of cancers is lower at 49.5%. The relative contribution of treatment costs to the total economic cost of cancers is greater in high-income countries than in low-income countries.Conclusions and Relevance In this decision analytical modeling study, the macroeconomic cost of cancers was found to be substantial and distributed heterogeneously across cancer types, countries, and world regions. The findings suggest that global efforts to curb the ongoing burden of cancers are warranted.
引用
收藏
页码:465 / 472
页数:8
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