Prediction model for pollution accidents trend in drinking water source areas: Enhancing water safety and comprehensive applications

The drinking water source area is a vulnerable aspect of water resources management, often prone to pollution accidents. Existing prediction models are inadequate for this specific area, necessitating the development of a new model. This novel model incorporates the GIS Platform and discrete equations for water quality and hydrodynamics. It was coupled with TECPLOT360, enabling real-time visualization of spatiotemporal changes in pollutant distribution. The model's application to the Huangjuedu drinking water source area specifically focused on mercury, a representative heavy metal, for prediction purposes. The study examined the spatialtemporal changes of pollutants during different water periods and explored emergency response measures for pollution accidents. Results indicated that: 1) the model could be applied to drinking water sources; 2) after the pollution accident, during the flood, water storage, falling, and drought period, the mercury concentration fell below 0.0001 mg/L at 82, 87, 92, and 93 min, respectively. 3) emergency response measures were proposed following the accident. By adjusting the flow discharge from the Xiangjiaba reservoir, the drinking water standards could be achieved 10, 10, 9, and 8 min ahead of schedule, respectively. This study provides valuable technical support for managing pollution accidents in drinking water source areas, ultimately enhancing emergency preparedness.