Transition to a first suicide attempt among young and middle-aged males with a history of suicidal thoughts: A two-year cohort study

Introduction: Although many studies have examined the risk and protective factors associated with suicidal behavior, little is known about the probability of transition from suicidal thoughts to suicidal attempts and the factors that distinguish those who have suicidal thoughts from those who progress to a suicide attempt. Objectives: To determine the probability and predictors of transition to a suicide attempt among young and middle-aged males with a history of suicidal thoughts but no prior history of attempting suicide. Methods: We used data from the first two waves of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health, approximately two years apart. We followed the cohort of males aged 18-55 years who, at wave 1, reported a lifetime history of suicidal ideation but no history of a prior suicide attempt. We report transition probabilities to a first suicide attempt at Wave 2 and used logistic regression models to examine baseline predictors of transition to a first suicide attempt over the two-year period among males aged 18 years and older. Results: From the 1,564 males with suicidal thoughts at wave 1,140 participants (8.9%; 95% CI:7.6,10.5) reported to have had their first suicide attempt in the two-year period. In multivariate analyses, males aged 30-39 (OR=0.31; 95% CI: 0.16,0.60), 40-49 (OR=0.47; 95% CI:0.24,0.91) and 50-55 (OR=0.31; 95% CI: 0.13,0.73) all had lower odds of a first suicide attempt compared to males aged 18-29 years. The odds of a first suicide attempt were significantly higher for males who were: living in inner regional areas (ref: major cities) (OR=2.32; 95% CI: 1.33,4.04); homosexual or bisexual (OR=2.51; 95% CI: 1.17,5.36); working night shift as their main job (OR=1.75; 95% CI: 1.05,2.91); and, living with a disability (OR=1.99; 95% CI: 1.07,3.65). Clinical indicators such as symptoms of depression and illicit substance use were not significant predictors of transition to a first suicide attempt in multivariate models, nor were indicators of social connection. Conclusion: We estimated that 8.9% of Australian males aged 15-55 years with a history of suicidal thoughts and no prior history of suicide attempts will progress to a first suicide attempt within two-years. Neither psychological distress, illicit substance use nor social connection indicators were correlated with transition to a first suicide attempt. Rather, it was socio-demographic indicators that were associated with transition to a first suicide attempt.