Crowding multipliers on shared transportation in New York City: The effects of COVID-19 and implications for a sustainable future

The COVID-19 pandemic has added to the challenge of decarbonizing the transportation sector, as shared modes were perceived as more dangerous during the health emergency. If these behaviors persist, drawing riders to more sustainable modes may be more difficult. This study investigates measures how crowding multipliers in New York City for the subway, ridehailing, and microtransit changed during and after the pandemic. We used Bayesian techniques to estimate two mixed logit models based on stated preference data. Results show that post-pandemic crowding multipliers are either similar or lower than during the pandemic, depending on the transportation mode and masking compliance. Additionally, vaccination requirements did not significantly affect respondents' choices, but respondents were willing to pay to reduce their transportation mode's carbon footprint. The study suggests that commuters' aversion to crowding will gradually decrease, but whether crowding multipliers will return to pre-pandemic levels or a post-pandemic "new normal" remains uncertain.