High risk water pollution hazards affecting Aveiro coastal lagoon (Portugal)-A habitat risk assessment using InVEST

Anthropogenic pressures put at jeopardy ecosystem services (ES) provided by natural habitats. Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) approaches can support policymakers dealing with physical, chemical, and biological stresses caused by high-risk water pollution (HRWP) and sudden-accidental pollution (SAP). The objective of this study is to evaluate how alarming HRWP pressures might become in fragile marine, coastal, estuarine, and freshwater socio-ecological systems (MCEF-SES) surrounded by heavily industrialized and urbanized areas. To this end a spatially explicit analysis, using the InVEST-Habitat Risk Assessment (InVEST-HRA) model in com-bination with expert judgement from researchers from various fields, is performed. An application is provided for the case of the Ria de Aveiro (RdA) coastal lagoon in Portugal. Results show high spatial variance of HRWP hazards across RdA, with one major multi-layer risk hotspot at the center of the research area and a second patch of multiple risk hotspots towards the North of RdA. Salines emerge as the most threatened habitat followed by Intertidal flats and Saltmarshes. The most significant water pollution risk sources contributing to Salines cu-mulative risk are Fossil fuel processing, storage and sale units, Industrial units, Aquaculture, and the Marinas. Industries involving dangerous substances in the region threaten primarily Watercourses. This study confirms the InVEST-HRA model in combination with expert judgement is a transparent and easily replicable approach to build ES-based knowledge about habitat risks threatening MCEF-SES in a Natura 2000 site heavily pressured by HRWP hazards. After further valuation analysis, pondering gains and losses from regional development and environmental protection, this knowledge can support the planning and management of coastal areas and the prioritization of pollution abatement interventions. In particular, by estimating the loss that HRWP causes in the value of ecosystem services, defining HRWP abatement policies, assessing the effectiveness, costs and benefits of those abatement policies and, ultimately, evaluating the results for the well-being of local communities through global efficiency analysis, cost-benefit analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis. Hence, it bridges the gap between an informed EBM and the development policies of fragile regions.