The Potential Impact of Cycling on Urban Transport Energy and Modal Share: A GIS-Based Methodology

This article presents a methodology to estimate the maximum potential impact of a well-built and conserved cycling infrastructure, measured as modal share for accessibility trips, as well as the associated transport energy that can be saved in those trips. The methodology uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to estimate active trip probabilities, from which the output variables can be obtained. It was applied to a case study of a mid-sized city in Southern Europe, and results show that an adequate cycling infrastructure can achieve cycling mode share in that city on par with the world's most cycling-friendly cities. Concerning transport energy, a full-cycling scenario is estimated to reduce fossil energy intensity by approximately 20%, mainly by inducing a mode change for residents on the closest outskirts. It is also argued that cycling investment in commuting routes will have the most impact on reducing fossil transport energy.