Evaluation of Ensemble Inflow Forecasts for Reservoir Management in Flood Situations

被引:2
|
作者
Mendes, Juliana [1 ,2 ]
Maia, Rodrigo [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Porto, Fac Engn, Civil Engn Dept, Hydraul Water Resources & Environm Div, Rua Roberto Frias, P-4200465 Porto, Portugal
[2] Univ Porto, Interdisciplinary Ctr Marine & Environm Res CIIMAR, Terminal Cruzeiros Porto Leixoes, Ave Gen Norton de Matos, P-4450208 Matosinhos, Portugal
关键词
ensemble forecasts; reservoir inflow; reliability; skill; floods; IMPACT;
D O I
10.3390/hydrology10020028
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
This paper describes the process of analysis and verification of ensemble inflow forecasts to the multi-purpose reservoir of Aguieira, located in the Mondego River, in the center of Portugal. This process was performed to select and validate the reference inflows for the management of a reservoir with flood control function. The ensemble inflow forecasts for the next 10-day period were generated forcing a hydrological model with quantitative precipitation forecasts from the High-Resolution Model (HRES) and the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Due to the uncertainty of the ensemble forecasts, a reference forecast to be considered for operational decisions in the management of reservoirs and to take protection measures from floods was proved necessary. This reference forecast should take into account the close agreement of the various forecasts performed for the same period as also the adjustment to the corresponding observed data. Thus, taking into account the conclusions derived from the evaluation process of the consistency and the quality of the ensemble forecasts, the reference inflow forecast to the Aguieira reservoir was defined by the maximum value of the ensemble in the first 72 h of the forecast period and by the 75th percentile in the following hours (from 72 to 240 h).
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [31] Evaluation of Multimodel-Based Ensemble Forecasts for Clear-Air Turbulence
    Lee, Dan-Bi
    Chun, Hye-Yeong
    Kim, Jung-Hoon
    WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 2020, 35 (02) : 507 - 521
  • [32] Informing operational flood management with ensemble predictions: lessons from Sweden
    Nobert, S.
    Demeritt, D.
    Cloke, H.
    JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT, 2010, 3 (01): : 72 - 79
  • [33] Probabilistic solar forecasts evaluation Part I: Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS)
    David, Mathieu
    La Salle, Josselin Le Gal
    Ramahatana-Andriamasomanana, Faly
    Lauret, Philippe
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE ISES SOLAR WORLD CONFERENCE 2019 AND THE IEA SHC SOLAR HEATING AND COOLING CONFERENCE FOR BUILDINGS AND INDUSTRY 2019, 2019, : 1989 - 1997
  • [34] Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins
    Ye, J.
    He, Y.
    Pappenberger, F.
    Cloke, H. L.
    Manful, D. Y.
    Li, Z.
    QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2014, 140 (682) : 1615 - 1628
  • [35] The European Flood Alert System and the communication, perception, and use of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management
    Demeritt, David
    Nobert, Sebastien
    Cloke, Hannah L.
    Pappenberger, Florian
    HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES, 2013, 27 (01) : 147 - 157
  • [36] Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: Application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts
    Christensen, H. M.
    Moroz, I. M.
    Palmer, T. N.
    QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2015, 141 (687) : 538 - 549
  • [37] Design and Evaluation of Calibrated and Seamless Ensemble Weather Forecasts for Crop Protection Applications
    Aleksovska, Ivana
    Raynaud, Laure
    Faivre, Robert
    Brun, Francois
    Raynal, Marc
    WEATHER AND FORECASTING, 2021, 36 (04) : 1329 - 1342
  • [38] Reservoir Inflow Synchronization Analysis for Four Reservoirs on a Mainstream and its Tributaries in Flood Season Based on a Multivariate Copula Model
    Wu Zening
    He Chentao
    Huiliang Wang
    Qian Zhang
    Water Resources Management, 2020, 34 : 2753 - 2770
  • [39] Reservoir Inflow Synchronization Analysis for Four Reservoirs on a Mainstream and its Tributaries in Flood Season Based on a Multivariate Copula Model
    Wu, Zening
    He, Chentao
    Wang, Huiliang
    Zhang, Qian
    WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, 2020, 34 (09) : 2753 - 2770
  • [40] Optimized Reservoir Prior Release Operation for Flood Control Considering Operational Weekly Ensemble Hydrological Forecast
    Nohara, Daisuke
    ADVANCES IN HYDROINFORMATICS: MODELS FOR COMPLEX AND GLOBAL WATER ISSUES-PRACTICES AND EXPECTATIONS, 2022, : 369 - 382