Evaluation of Ensemble Inflow Forecasts for Reservoir Management in Flood Situations

被引:2
|
作者
Mendes, Juliana [1 ,2 ]
Maia, Rodrigo [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Porto, Fac Engn, Civil Engn Dept, Hydraul Water Resources & Environm Div, Rua Roberto Frias, P-4200465 Porto, Portugal
[2] Univ Porto, Interdisciplinary Ctr Marine & Environm Res CIIMAR, Terminal Cruzeiros Porto Leixoes, Ave Gen Norton de Matos, P-4450208 Matosinhos, Portugal
关键词
ensemble forecasts; reservoir inflow; reliability; skill; floods; IMPACT;
D O I
10.3390/hydrology10020028
中图分类号
TV21 [水资源调查与水利规划];
学科分类号
081501 ;
摘要
This paper describes the process of analysis and verification of ensemble inflow forecasts to the multi-purpose reservoir of Aguieira, located in the Mondego River, in the center of Portugal. This process was performed to select and validate the reference inflows for the management of a reservoir with flood control function. The ensemble inflow forecasts for the next 10-day period were generated forcing a hydrological model with quantitative precipitation forecasts from the High-Resolution Model (HRES) and the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) of the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Due to the uncertainty of the ensemble forecasts, a reference forecast to be considered for operational decisions in the management of reservoirs and to take protection measures from floods was proved necessary. This reference forecast should take into account the close agreement of the various forecasts performed for the same period as also the adjustment to the corresponding observed data. Thus, taking into account the conclusions derived from the evaluation process of the consistency and the quality of the ensemble forecasts, the reference inflow forecast to the Aguieira reservoir was defined by the maximum value of the ensemble in the first 72 h of the forecast period and by the 75th percentile in the following hours (from 72 to 240 h).
引用
收藏
页数:13
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS
    Yang, Sheng-Chi
    Yang, Tsun-Hua
    ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY, 2014, 2014
  • [2] Using ensemble precipitation forecasts and a rainfall-runoff model for hourly reservoir inflow forecasting during typhoon periods
    Lee, Kwan Tun
    Ho, Jui-Yi
    Kao, Hong-Ming
    Lin, Gwo-Fong
    Yang, Tsun-Hua
    JOURNAL OF HYDRO-ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH, 2019, 22 : 29 - 37
  • [3] Assessment of Ensemble Discharge Forecasts for Operational Flood Warnings
    Bartels, Janna
    Bliefernicht, Jan
    Seidel, Jochen
    Bardossy, Andras
    Kunstmann, Harald
    Johst, Margret
    Demuth, Norbert
    HYDROLOGIE UND WASSERBEWIRTSCHAFTUNG, 2017, 61 (05): : 297 - 310
  • [4] Can ensemble forecasts improve the reliability of flood alerts?
    Dietrich, J.
    Denhard, M.
    Schumann, A. H.
    JOURNAL OF FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT, 2009, 2 (04): : 232 - 242
  • [5] Evaluation of the Added Value of Probabilistic Nowcasting Ensemble Forecasts on Regional Ensemble Forecasts
    Yang, Lu
    Cheng, Cong-Lan
    Xia, Yu
    Chen, Min
    Chen, Ming-Xuan
    Zhang, Han-Bin
    Huang, Xiang-Yu
    ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2023, 40 (05) : 937 - 951
  • [6] Probabilistic flood forecasting on the Rhone River: evaluation with ensemble and analogue-based precipitation forecasts
    Bellier, Joseph
    Zin, Isabella
    Siblot, Stanislas
    Bontron, Guillaume
    3RD EUROPEAN CONFERENCE ON FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT (FLOODRISK 2016), 2016, 7
  • [7] Evaluation of an Application of Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts for Flood Forecasting
    Goenner, Andrew R.
    Franz, Kristie J.
    Gallus Jr, William A.
    Roberts, Brett
    WATER, 2020, 12 (10)
  • [8] Ensemble Forecasts of Extreme Flood Events with Weather Forecasts, Land Surface Modeling and Deep Learning
    Liu, Yuxiu
    Yuan, Xing
    Jiao, Yang
    Ji, Peng
    Li, Chaoqun
    An, Xindai
    WATER, 2024, 16 (07)
  • [9] Advancing subseasonal reservoir inflow forecasts using an explainable machine learning method
    Fan, Ming
    Liu, Siyan
    Lu, Dan
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES, 2023, 50
  • [10] Analysis of the effects of biases in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasts on electricity production in hydropower reservoir management
    Arsenault, Richard
    Cote, Pascal
    HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 2019, 23 (06) : 2735 - 2750