Design, Simulation and Performance Evaluation of a Risk-Based Border Management System

Border control systems at Europe's Schengen (and worldwide) borders are necessary to mitigate cross-border threats, but are perceived as free-traveling bottlenecks. Today's applicable European regulations demand rule-based control schemes and do not allow risk-based elements. A policy shift towards risk-based border control has been considered in several studies and research (including HEU projects). However, there is a lack of scientific evidence on how they compare with existing rule-based schemes. This paper aims to fill that gap. The simulation allows design of a realistic border control system. The passenger flow is modeled via travelers with good and bad intents. The border control system includes decision-making elements to classify travelers into risk groups. System elements including operators and their interaction were modeled in terms of statistical distributions based on the subject matter experts' input. The performance is estimated across security effectiveness, resource usage, passenger flow, and traveler experience. Assessment of a set of simulations reveals better scalability of risk-based systems in terms of resource usage and passenger flow. The potential factors to improve the detection rate of the border control process are also studied. Despite having several benefits, the model demonstrates that social acceptance of the risk-based system is the limiting factor for increased scalability.