Predicting near-term glaucoma progression: An artificial intelligence approach using clinical free-text notes and data from electronic health records

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to develop a model to predict whether or not glaucoma will progress to the point of requiring surgery within the following year, using data from electronic health records (EHRs), including both structured data and free-text progress notes. Methods: A cohort of adult glaucoma patients was identified from the EHR at Stanford University between 2008 and 2020, with data including free-text clinical notes, demographics, diagnosis codes, prior surgeries, and clinical information, including intraocular pressure, visual acuity, and central corneal thickness. Words from patients' notes were mapped to ophthalmology domain-specific neural word embeddings. Word embeddings and structured clinical data were combined as inputs to deep learning models to predict whether a patient would undergo glaucoma surgery in the following 12 months using the previous 4-12 months of clinical data. We also evaluated models using only structured data inputs (regression-, tree-, and deep-learning-based models) and models using only text inputs. Results: Of the 3,469 glaucoma patients included in our cohort, 26% underwent surgery. The baseline penalized logistic regression model achieved an area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.873 and F1 score of 0.750, compared with the best tree-based model (random forest, AUC 0.876; F1 0.746), the deep learning structured features model (AUC 0.885; F1 0.757), the deep learning clinical free-text features model (AUC 0.767; F1 0.536), and the deep learning model with both the structured clinical features and free-text features (AUC 0.899; F1 0.745). Discussion: Fusion models combining text and EHR structured data successfully and accurately predicted glaucoma progression to surgery. Future research incorporating imaging data could further optimize this predictive approach and be translated into clinical decision support tools.