Conditional survival to assess prognosis in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

Biomarkers in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) allow assessment of prognosis. However, the validity of current prognostic biomarkers based on a single assessment point remains unclear for patients who have survived one or more years. Conditional survival (CS) studies that address how prognosis may change over time, especially in prognostic subgroups, are still rare. We performed CS analyses to estimate 5-year survival in 1-year increments, stratified by baseline disease characteristics and known risk factors in two community-based cohorts of CLL patients (Freiburg University Hospital (n = 316) and Augsburg University Hospital (n = 564)) diagnosed between 1984 and 2021. We demonstrate that 5-year CS probability is stable (app. 75%) for the entire CLL patient cohort over 10 years. While age, sex, and stage have no significant impact on CS, patients with high-risk disease features such as non-mutated IGHV, deletion 17p, and high-risk CLL-IPI have a significantly worse prognosis at diagnosis, and 5-year CS steadily decreases with each additional year survived. Our results confirm that CLL patients have a stable survival probability with excess mortality and that the prognosis of high-risk CLL patients declines over time. We infer that CS-based prognostic information is relevant for disease management and counseling of CLL patients.