Does integrating climate change projection with agriculture policy improve agricultural adaptation and food security? Evidence from Bangladesh

Predicting future temperature and precipitation patterns holds paramount importance for any country, particularly for devising effective agricultural adaptation strategies. This study has a twofold aim: first, to project future temperature and precipitation trends and simulate potential drought scenarios in the northern and southwestern regions of Bangladesh. Second, it seeks to underscore the significance of incorporating climate change projections into the nation's agricultural policies. By utilizing CMIP5 data and RCP4.5 scenarios, this study projected temperature and precipitation for the years 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2060, relative to the baseline period (1995 to 2014). Notably, the results indicated substantial variations between pre- and post-monsoon temperatures, with projected maximum, minimum, and mean temperature differences of > 5 degrees C, < 3<degrees>C, and < 4<degrees>C, respectively. The drought projection portrayed that numerous districts in the northwestern region (Natore, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Naogaon, Nawabganj, and Rajshahi) will potentially face moderate to severe drought conditions. Additionally, a few districts in the southwestern region (Jessore and Chuadanga) are also projected to encounter similar conditions. Finally, our analysis underscores the necessity for aligning the country's agricultural policies with projected climate change scenarios to safeguard food production, thereby mitigating climate-induced environmental and societal vulnerabilities. Such an approach would enhance the nation's capacity to combat hunger and contribute to the attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).