The economic effects of government spending: using expectations data to control for information

被引:1
作者
Hall, Matthew [1 ]
Thapar, Aditi [2 ]
机构
[1] Boston Consulting Grp Inc, Boston, MA USA
[2] Univ Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Fiscal policy; multipliers; impulse response; forecasts; FISCAL-POLICY; TRANSMISSION; MULTIPLIERS; PURCHASES; STIMULUS; SHOCKS;
D O I
10.1017/S1365100521000341
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
We present a new methodology that uses professional forecasts to estimate the effects of fiscal policy. We use short-term forecasts to better identify exogenous shocks to government spending by controlling for anticipatory information already in the public domain. We use longer-term forecasts to net out expectations from the future path of other variables, which improves accuracy and efficiency by focusing on more precise measures of the impact of shocks. We show that this improves the statistical fit relative to both local projection methods and vector autoregression-based analyses that do not control for the entire future path of expectations.
引用
收藏
页码:141 / 170
页数:30
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