Development and Validation of CCTA-based Radiomics Signature for Predicting Coronary Plaques With Rapid Progression

BACKGROUND: Rapid plaque progression (RPP) is associated with a higher risk of acute coronary syndromes compared with gradual plaque progression. We aimed to develop and validate a coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA)-based radiomics signature (RS) of plaques for predicting RPP. METHODS: A total of 214 patients who underwent serial CCTA examinations from 2 tertiary hospitals (development group, 137 patients with 164 lesions; validation group, 77 patients with 101 lesions) were retrospectively enrolled. Conventional CCTA-defined morphological parameters (eg, high-risk plaque characteristics and plaque burden) and radiomics features of plaques were analyzed. RPP was defined as an annual progression of plaque burden >= 1.0% on lesion-level at follow-up CCTA. RS was built to predict RPP using XGBoost method. RESULTS: RS significantly outperformed morphological parameters for predicting RPP in both the development group (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.82 versus 0.74; P=0.04) and validation group (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.81 versus 0.69; P=0.04). Multivariable analysis identified RS (odds ratio, 2.35 [95% CI, 1.32-4.46]; P=0.005) as an independent predictor of subsequent RPP in the validation group after adjustment of morphological confounders. Unlike unchanged RS in the non-RPP group, RS increased significantly in the RPP group at follow-up in the whole dataset (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed CCTA-based RS had a better discriminative value to identify plaques at risk of rapid progression compared with conventional morphological plaque parameters. These data suggest the promising utility of radiomics for predicting RPP in a low-risk group on CCTA.