Long-Term Impact of COVID-19 on the Indian Labour Market

Based on the data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) and multiple rounds of the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), the paper summarises evidence on changes in the employment-unemployment scenario since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and related curbs on economic activity since April 2020. The paper presents evidence on how the pandemic affected pre-existing gender, caste gaps and patterns of employment by sector of production (agricultural, manufacturing, and services). The paper situates these shifts in a longer arc, comparing them to the pre-COVID employment scenario, to understand the long-term impact of the pandemic on the Indian labour market. The data show that the pandemic reinforced and deepened many of the pre-existing schisms. As economic activity is recovering, employment is increasing, but is yet to return to the pre-pandemic levels. The employment challenge is bigger than just achieving the pre-pandemic levels: there is an urgent need to boost job creation and rectify pre-pandemic deep-rooted inequalities.