A New Risk Score to Predict Intensive Care Unit Admission for Patients with Acute Pancreatitis 48 Hours After Admission: Multicenter Study

Aims: The objective of this study was to develop and validate an easy-to-use risk score (APRS) to predict which patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) will need intensive care unit (ICU) treatment within 48 h post-hospitalization on the basis of the ubiquitously available clinical records. Methods: Patients with acute pancreatitis were retrospectively included from three independent institutions (RM cohort, 5280; TJ cohort, 262; SN cohort, 196), with 56 candidate variables collected within 48 h post-hospitalization. The RM cohort was randomly divided into a training set (N = 4220) and a test set (N = 1060). The most predictive features were extracted by LASSO from the RM cohort and entered into multivariate analysis. APRS was constructed using the coefficients of the statistically significant variables weighted by the multivariable logistic regression model. The APRS was validated by RM, TJ, and SN cohorts. The C-statistic was employed to evaluate the APRS's discrimination. DeLong test was used to compare area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) differences. Results: A total of 5738 patients with AP were enrolled. Eleven variables were selected by LASSO and entered into multivariate analysis. APRS was inferred using the above five factors (pleural effusion, ALT/AST, ALB/GLB, urea, and glucose) weighted by their regression coefficients in the multivariable logistic regression model. The C-statistics of APRS were 0.905 (95% CI 0.82-0.98) and 0.889 (95% CI 0.81-0.96) in RM and TJ validation. An online APRS web-based calculator was constructed to assist the clinician to earlier assess the clinical outcomes of patients with AP. Conclusion: APRS could effectively stratify patients with AP into high and low risk of ICU admission within 48 h post-hospitalization, offering clinical value in directing management and personalize therapeutic selection for patients with AP.