From regional climate models to usable information

被引:5
作者
Jebeile, Julie [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bern, Inst Philosophy, Bern, Switzerland
[2] Univ Bern, Oeschger Ctr Climate Change Res, Bern, Switzerland
[3] Meteo France, Ctr Natl Rech Meteorol, UMR 3589, CNRM, Toulouse, France
基金
瑞士国家科学基金会;
关键词
Regional Climate Models; Climate change impact; Climate services; Climate uncertainties; Non-epistemic values; Usable or actionable information; ADAPTATION; SCIENCE; VALUES; PROJECTIONS; UNCERTAINTY; ADVENTURES; USABILITY; KNOWLEDGE; NEED;
D O I
10.1007/s10584-024-03693-7
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Today, a major challenge for climate science is to overcome what is called the "usability gap" between the projections derived fromclimate models and the needs of the end-users. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are expected to provide usable information concerning a variety of impacts and for a wide range of end-users. It is often assumed that the development of more accurate, more complex RCMs with higher spatial resolution should bring process understanding and better local projections, thus overcoming the usability gap. In this paper, I rather assume that the credibility of climate information should be pursued together with two other criteria of usability, which are salience and legitimacy. Based on the Swiss climate change scenarios, I study the attempts at meeting the needs of end-users and outline the trade-off modellers and users have to face with respect to the cascade of uncertainty. A conclusion of this paper is that the trade-off between salience and credibility sets the conditions under which RCMs can be deemed adequate for the purposes of addressing the needs of end-users and gearing the communication of the projections toward direct use and action.
引用
收藏
页数:19
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