Understanding the conflict and cooperation in the Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin under climate change: a quantitative view based on water events

The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra River Basin (YBRB) has long been troubled by the competitive water development activities of India, China, and Bangladesh. While energy thirst and food security keep challenging the riparian States, climate-related changing monsoon pattern increases the potential for conflicts over scarce water. Based on a quantitative analysis of 400 water events spanning the years 1958- 2020 of the basin, this research tries to provide a holistic understanding of the conflict and cooperation and explore the possibility of water war or "climate-based' water war in the basin; and thus formulate more precise recommendations to help prevent and mitigate conflicts. The results of this quantitative research surprisingly reveal that, instead of being main causes of bilateral conflict in the basin, the "energy imperative' and the "climate imperative' have become two major catalysts for water cooperation in the basin, water war is therefore highly unlikely. However, current bilateral cooperation on climate change mainly involves "climate adaptation'; few efforts have yet been made cooperatively in the field of "climate mitigation'; while traditional disputes around food and energy persist, the imperative of ecological protection and the lack of attention to cooperative climate mitigation are set to intensify potential conflict in the YBRB.