Analysis and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Korgalzhyn District, Kazakhstan

被引：11

作者：

Alipbeki, Onggarbek ^{[1
]}

Alipbekova, Chaimgul ^{[2
]}

Mussaif, Gauhar ^{[3
]}

Grossul, Pavel ^{[3
]}

Zhenshan, Darima ^{[4
]}

Muzyka, Olesya ^{[5
]}

Turekeldiyeva, Rimma ^{[6
]}

Yelubayev, Dastan ^{[7
]}

Rakhimov, Daniyar ^{[2
]}

Kupidura, Przemyslaw ^{[8
]}

Aliken, Eerassyl ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Al Faraby Kazakh Natl Univ, Dept Geodesy & Geoinformat, Farabi Ave 71, Alma Ata 050040, Kazakhstan

[2] S Seifullin Kazakh Agrotech Res Univ, Dept Biol Plant Protect & Quarantine, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

[3] S Seifullin Kazakh Agrotech Res Univ, Dept Geodesy & Cartog, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

[4] S Seifullin Kazakh Agrotech Res Univ, Dept Management & Mkt, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

[5] S Seifullin Kazakh Agrotech Res Univ, Dept Cadastre, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

[6] MH Dulaty Taraz Reg Univ, Dept Ecol, Taraz 160000, Kazakhstan

[7] S Seifullin Kazakh Agrotech Res Univ, Dept Comp Sci, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

[8] Warsaw Univ Technol, Fac Geodesy & Cartog, Warsaw, Poland

来源：

AGRONOMY-BASEL | 2024年 / 14卷 / 02期

关键词：

land use land cover; google earth engine; Random Forest; change analysis; prediction; CA-ANN; MOLUSCE; Korgalzhyn District; QUANTITY DISAGREEMENT; WETLANDS;

D O I：

10.3390/agronomy14020268

中图分类号：

S3 [农学（农艺学）];

学科分类号：

0901 ;

摘要：

Changes occurring because of human activity in protected natural places require constant monitoring of land use (LU) structures. Therefore, Korgalzhyn District, which occupies part of the Korgalzhyn State Natural Reserve territory, is of considerable interest. The aim of these studies was to analyze changes in the composition of the land use/land cover (LULC) of Korgalzhyn District from 2010 to 2021 and predict LU transformation by 2030 and 2050. Landsat image classification was performed using Random Forest on the Google Earth Engine. The combined CA-ANN model was used to predict LULC changes by 2030 and 2050, and studies were carried out using the MOLUSCE plugin. The results of these studies showed that from 2010 to 2021, there was a steady increase in the share of ploughable land and an adequate reduction in grassland. It is established that, in 2030 and 2050, this trend will continue. At the same time, there will be no drastic changes in the composition of other land classes. The obtained results can be helpful for the development of land management plans and development policies for the Korgalzhyn District.

引用

页数：28

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