The potential value of seasonal drought forecasts in the context of climate change: A case study of the African elephant conservation sector

This study investigates meteorological drought in sub-Saharan Africa within the context of elephant conservation. Prolonged drought significantly impacts elephants, leading to increased mortality rates and heightened human-elephant conflicts. We assess both the anticipated 21st century changes in impact-relevant meteorological drought metrics and the efficacy of existing forecasting systems in predicting such droughts on seasonal time scales. The climate change element of our study uses the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) ensemble to evaluate projected change in 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI3). We then carry out a quantitative assessment of seasonal forecast skill, utilizing 110 years of precipitation hindcasts generated by the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) system. Our findings indicate that persistent drought is projected to become more frequent over the 21st century in southern Africa, where the majority of elephants reside. Analysis of seasonal hindcasts indicates that, while the forecasts have greater skill than climatology, they remain highly uncertain. Previous work suggests that it may be possible to reduce this uncertainty by contextualizing forecasts within specific climate regimes. However, even with improved forecast skill, effective action hinges on the alignment of forecasts with the practical needs of conservation practitioners. Over the next decades, a co-production approach will be critical for leveraging seasonal forecasts for climate change adaptation within the conservation sector. Comparison between present day (left plot) and future occurrence of persistent drought (middle plot) in regions of Africa inhabited by elephants (shown as dotted grid points) suggests that the southern regions, where most elephants live, are projected to get drier. Seasonal forecasts have some skill (right plot), but the predictions will be uncertain. Further development, utilising a co-production approach may enable us to realise the potential of seasonal forecasts to facilitate early action in a more drought-prone future. image