Can land-use and land-cover change explain reduced resilience in forests?

Generating signals of reduced resilience in ecosystems is crucial for conservation and management endeavors. However, the practical implications of such systems are still limited due to the lack of high-frequency data and uncertainties associated with predicting complex systems such as ecosystems. This study aims to investigate the potential of time series analysis of remote sensing data in detecting signals of reduced resilience in mangrove forest ecosystems. Using time series analysis of remote sensing images, the resilience of mangrove forests was explored across two distinct study sites. One site (Qeshm Island) has been adversely affected by land-use and land-cover changes, while the other (Gabrik) serves as a reference ecosystem. The study uses data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite to quantify three remotely sensed indices: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and the Modified Vegetation Water Ratio (MVWR). In addition, Landsat data has been used to explore temporal alterations in land-use and land-cover change. To identify signals of reduced resilience, trend analyses of indicators such as autocorrelation (acf (1)) and standard deviation (SD) are applied. The findings revealed a notable decrease in resilience, signaled by significant upward trends in NDVI statistical metrics for Qeshm Island (Kendall's tau of acf (1): 0.50 and SD: 0.90), contrasting with the pattern observed in Gabrik (Kendall's tau of acf (1): -0.19 and SD: -0.19). These results align with our expectations derived from previous studies. Despite MNDWI significantly indicating reduced resilience in Qeshm Island (Kendall's tau of acf (1): 0.86 and SD: 0.90), it also signaled decreased resilience in Gabrik (Kendall's tau of acf (1): 0.79 and SD: 0.90). Moreover, MVWR failed to indicate signals of reduced resilience in both sites, specifically in Qeshm (Kendall's tau of acf (1): -0.10 and SD: -0.07) and in Gabrik (Kendall's tau of acf (1): -0.72 and SD: -0.12). These findings may be explained through quantitative analyses of land-use and land-cover change. While Qeshm Island and Gabrik share similarities in climate, geography, and annual rainfall, the analysis of land-use and land-cover change revealed significant differences between the two study areas. Qeshm Island underwent drastic increases in the built-up class by a 64.40% change between 1996 and 2014, whereas the built-up class expanded modestly by a 4.04% change in the Gabrik site. This study contributes to advancing our understanding of ecosystem dynamics. The findings of this study can be integrated with ecosystem management tools to enhance the effectiveness of conservation efforts. This is the first report of the successful application of remote sensing in generating signals of reduced resilience within mangrove forests in the Middle East.