Potential of Concentrated Solar Power in the Western Region of Saudi Arabia: A GIS-Based Land Suitability Analysis and Techno-Economic Feasibility Assessment

Saudi Arabia (SA) currently relies on fossil fuels to address its escalating electricity demand and rapid industrialization, a practice that significantly contributes to climate change. This study underscores the potential of solar energy as a key renewable energy source (RES) for SA, with a specific focus on Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). CSP stands out due to its capacity to provide dispatchable electricity coupled with thermal energy storage (TES). This research introduces an integrated energy model encompassing both site suitability and techno-economic analyses tailored for utility-scale CSP technology. The investigation unfolds in two phases: site suitability analysis and techno-economic assessment, each designed to scrutinize the viability and applicability of CSP technology for power generation in SA's western region. In the initial phase, an innovative approach, leveraging Fuzzy-Boolean Logic and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) through GIS tools, is employed to identify optimal CSP plant locations. This method offers a more comprehensive and robust analysis by accounting for uncertainty and ambiguity in decision-making. Criteria are prioritized based on relative importance, contributing a novel dimension to the field. The analysis reveals that 70% of the province's land is suitable for CSP deployment, with Makkah, Taif, Al-Khumra, and Turbah identified as the most favorable locations. In the second phase, two established CSP plants, Shams-1 and Noor III, are utilized to evaluate the technical and economic feasibility of CSP in five selected sites within the most suitable areas. The analysis unveils the lowest levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for utility-scale CSP plants in Makkah province, standing at 9.58 cent/kWh for parabolic trough (PT) technology and 9.17 cent/kWh for solar power tower (SPT) technology. Sensitivity analysis of TES indicates that CSP plants with 8 hours of storage exhibit the optimal configuration, producing electricity with the lowest LCOE and the highest capacity factor (CF). This comprehensive study establishes CSP as a viable and promising renewable energy (RE) technology for SA. The proposed site selection methodology facilitates the identification of suitable locations for CSP plants, while the techno-economic analysis demonstrates that CSP plants equipped with TES are both cost-effective and reliable.