Community-centred scenarios development for water-energy-food security on Zanzibar

Small developing islands demonstrate strong social-ecological interactions as well as a high level of exposure to climate-related effects, which can result in intense land use pressures. Scenario methodologies are useful for reflecting on how competing pressures interact when planning for a more sustainable future. In small islands, local knowledge is integral to the development of scenarios because of the close connection between people and local environments. However, local communities are often underrepresented in scenario development processes. This study provides a methodological example of how local knowledge can be used to create scenario themes. Ten community participatory workshops were hosted on Zanzibar (n = 142), where a water-energy-food framework was used to examine impacts of environmental change on resource security. Major drivers of land use and land cover change affecting water-energy-food security were identified; these include population growth, development and climate change. Solutions to observed challenges formed three coherent scenario themes, centred on adaptation, ecosystem health and sustainable settlements. Findings support the idea that communities need space to frame their resource challenges for sustainability planning to work at the appropriate scale.