Expecting exclusion: Does bracing for the worst buffer the pain of social exclusion?

Evidence from different research areas suggests that expecting negative outcomes can buffer their adverse psychological effects. In the context of social exclusion, however, evidence for buffering effects of expectations on individuals' immediate need threat is mixed and has not been examined in terms of cognitive bracing. We present four studies (N = 1159) that test two competing hypotheses (no buffering vs. buffering effects) and focus on three explanations that may account for the previous mixed findings. Study 1 provides support for buffering effects. However, Studies 2, 3 and 4 do not replicate these effects. An integrative data analysis across the four studies using equivalence tests suggests no meaningful differences in need threat after exclusion. These results suggest that expectations alone may not suffice to buffer immediate need threat or negative affect after exclusion, and illuminate how prior seemingly contradictory evidence may align well. Conceptual and practical implications are discussed.