Dynamic evolution trend and key obstacle factors analysis on the cooperative security of water, energy, and food nexus: a Southwest China case study

Ensuring the cooperative security of water, energy, and food (WEF) nexus system is one of the keys to achieve regional high-quality development. In the present study, the pressure-state-response (PSR) model was introduced to construct the cooperative security evaluation index system (CSEIS) of the WEF nexus system from the perspectives of stability of resources supply and demand (ST), coordination of resources utilization(CO), and sustainability of cooperative security of the WEF nexus system (SU). Then, the dynamic evolution trend and key obstacle factors of cooperative security of the WEF nexus system were revealed and analyzed respectively on the basis of comprehensive evaluation in Southwest China. In order to further improve the cooperative security of the WEF nexus system, this paper proposed a series of countermeasures from the perspectives of resources stability, coordination and sustainability, etc. The results showed that: The cooperative security of the WEF nexus system in four regions in Southwest China were maintained at their own levels with a relatively high probability. Specifically, the cooperative security of the WEF nexus system in Chongqing and Sichuan was mostly at Level III (moderate security), while that of Guizhou and Yunnan was mostly at Level IV (lower security). As for the transfer risk, the cooperative security levels of Chongqing and Sichuan were more inclined to transfer downward with limited potential and speed, while the cooperative security levels of Guizhou and Yunnan provinces were more inclined to transfer upward. More than half of the key obstacle factors came from the response system (e.g. D20, D21, D25, D27, and D28), indicating that the response subsystem had the greatest impact on the cooperative security of the WEF nexus system.