Role of external forcing in the time-varying trends of global-mean surface temperature under current and future climates

被引:1
作者
Gu, Pingting [1 ,2 ]
Gan, Bolan [1 ,2 ,3 ]
Cai, Wenju [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ]
Wu, Lixin [1 ,2 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao, Peoples R China
[2] Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
[3] Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China
[4] Ctr Southern Hemisphere Oceans Res CSHOR, CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
[5] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
global-mean surface temperature; decadal trend variation; external forcing; aerosol; DECADAL POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY; MULTIDECADAL VARIABILITY; INTERNAL VARIABILITY; EL-NINO; PACIFIC; AEROSOL; HIATUS; PREDICTIONS; SCIENCE; DRIVEN;
D O I
10.1088/1748-9326/ad2eea
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The decadal-scale global-mean surface temperature (GMST) trend fluctuates between rapid-warming, slow-warming and cooling under the combined action of external forcing (EX) and internal variability. However, the principal contributors to the time-varying trends of GMST across decadal scales in current and future climates remain elusive. Here, by leveraging observations and initial-condition large ensembles, we unravel that historical GMST trend fluctuations are predominantly driven by EX on timescales exceeding similar to 9 years within the current climate, with anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols being the primary drivers. However, in the warming climate, the significant contribution of EX on decadal scales is projected to decrease. This is primarily due to anthropogenic aerosol mitigation efforts and the absence of unpredictable volcanism. Despite the continuous increase in greenhouse gases, these factors are expected to delay the emergence of EX-dominance to similar to 14-year timescale. Our results quantitatively underscore the pivotal role of the EX in modulating GMST trend fluctuations and its potential weakening at decadal scales in the warming climate, indicating that predicting near-term changes in GMST may become less certain in the future.
引用
收藏
页数:11
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