Global, regional, and national burden of rheumatoid arthritis, 1990-2020, and projections to 2050: a systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

被引：220

作者：

Black, Rachel J. ^{[1
,2
]}

Cross, Marita ^{[4
,7
]}

Haile, Lydia M. ^{[8
]}

Culbreth, Garland ^{[8
]}

Steinmetz, Jaimie ^{[8
]}

Hagins, Hailey ^{[8
]}

Kopec, Jacek A. ^{[11
,12
]}

Brooks, Peter M. ^{[13
]}

Woolf, Anthony ^{[14
,15
]}

Ong, Kanyin Liane ^{[8
]}

Kopansky-Giles, Deborah R. ^{[16
,19
]}

Dreinhoefer, Karsten E. ^{[7
,20
]}

Betteridge, Neil

Aali, Amirali ^{[22
]}

Abbasifard, Mitra ^{[25
,26
]}

Abbasi-Kangevari, Mohsen ^{[28
]}

Abdurehman, Ame Mehadi ^{[39
]}

Abedi, Aidin ^{[41
,42
]}

Abidi, Hassan ^{[43
]}

Aboagye, Richard Gyan ^{[45
]}

Abolhassani, Hassan ^{[29
,47
]}

Abu-Gharbieh, Eman ^{[48
]}

Abu-Zaid, Ahmed ^{[51
,52
]}

Adamu, Kidist ^{[53
]}

Addo, Isaac Yeboah ^{[54
,55
]}

Adesina, Miracle Ayomikun ^{[56
,57
]}

Adnani, Qorinah Estiningtyas Sakilah ^{[61
]}

Afzal, Muhammad Sohail ^{[62
]}

Ahmed, Ayman ^{[64
,65
]}

Aithala, Janardhana P. ^{[66
]}

Akhlaghdoust, Meisam ^{[67
,68
]}

Alemayehu, Astawus ^{[71
,72
]}

Alvand, Saba ^{[30
]}

Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J. ^{[73
,74
]}

Amu, Hubert ^{[46
]}

Antony, Benny ^{[76
]}

Arabloo, Jalal ^{[77
]}

Aravkin, Aleksandr Y. ^{[8
,9
,10
]}

Arulappan, Judie ^{[80
]}

Ashraf, Tahira ^{[81
]}

Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin ^{[83
]}

Azadnajafabad, Sina ^{[28
]}

Badawi, Alaa ^{[17
,84
]}

Baghcheghi, Nayereh ^{[85
]}

Baig, Atif Amin ^{[82
]}

Balta, Asaminew Birhanu ^{[87
]}

Banach, Maciej ^{[93
,94
]}

Banik, Palash Chandra ^{[95
]}

Barrow, Amadou ^{[96
,97
]}

Bashiri, Azadeh ^{[98
]}

机构：

[1] Royal Adelaide Hosp, Rheumatol Unit, Adelaide, SA, Australia

[2] Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Rheumatol Unit, Woodville, SA, Australia

[3] Queen Elizabeth Hosp, Dept Rheumatol, Woodville, SA, Australia

[4] Univ Sydney, Fac Med & Hlth, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[5] Univ Sydney, Sydney Med Sch, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[6] Univ Sydney, Save Sight Inst, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[7] Global Alliance Musculoskeletal Hlth, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[8] Univ Washington, Inst Hlth Metr & Evaluat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[9] Univ Washington, Dept Appl Math, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[10] Univ Washington, Sch Med, Dept Hlth Metr Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[11] Univ British Columbia, Sch Populat & Publ Hlth, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[12] Arthrit Res Canada, Richmond, BC, Canada

[13] Univ Melbourne, Ctr Hlth Policy, Melbourne, Vic, Australia

[14] Royal Cornwall Hosp, Bone & Joint Res Grp, Truro, England

[15] Univ Toronto, Global Alliance Musculoskeletal Hlth, Toronto, ON, Canada

[16] Univ Toronto, Dept Family & Community Med, Toronto, ON, Canada

[17] Univ Toronto, Dept Nutr Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada

[18] Univ Toronto, Temerty Fac Med, Toronto, ON, Canada

[19] Canadian Mem Chiropract Coll, Dept Res & Innovat, Toronto, ON, Canada

[20] Charite Med Univ Berlin, Ctr Musculoskeletal Surg, Berlin, Germany

[21] Charite Med Univ Berlin, Inst Publ Hlth, Berlin, Germany

[22] Mashhad Univ Med Sci, Fac Med, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran

[23] Mashhad Univ Med Sci, Appl Biomed Res Ctr, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran

[24] Mashhad Univ Med Sci, Biotechnol Res Ctr, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran

[25] Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci, Dept Internal Med, Rafsanjan, Iran

[26] Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci, Clin Res Dev Unit, Rafsanjan, Iran

[27] Rafsanjan Univ Med Sci, Dept Med Biochem, Rafsanjan, Iran

[28] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Noncommunicable Dis Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[29] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Res Ctr Immunodeficiencies, Tehran, Iran

[30] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Liver & Pancreatobiliary Dis Res Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[31] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Interdisciplinary Neurosci Res Program, Tehran, Iran

[32] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Childrens Med Ctr, Tehran, Iran

[33] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Endocrinol & Metab Res Inst, Tehran, Iran

[34] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Dept Pediat Cardiol, Tehran, Iran

[35] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Tehran, Iran

[36] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Students Sci Res Ctr SSRC, Tehran, Iran

[37] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Digest Dis Res Inst, Tehran, Iran

[38] Univ Tehran Med Sci, Fac Med, Tehran, Iran

[39] Haramaya Univ, Dept Emergency & Crit Care Nursing, Harar, Ethiopia

[40] Haramaya Univ, Dept Epidemiol & Biostat, Harar, Ethiopia

[41] Univ Southern Calif, Dept Neurosurg, Los Angeles, CA 90007 USA

[42] Univ Southern Calif, Keck Sch Med, Los Angeles, CA 90007 USA

[43] Yasuj Univ Med Sci, Lab Technol Sci Dept, Yasuj, Iran

[44] Yasuj Univ Med Sci, Dept Nursing, Yasuj, Iran

[45] Univ Hlth & Allied Sci, Dept Family & Community Hlth, Ho, Ghana

[46] Univ Hlth & Allied Sci, Dept Populat & Behav Sci, Ho, Ghana

[47] Karolinska Univ Hosp, Dept Biosci & Nutr, Huddinge, Sweden

[48] Univ Sharjah, Dept Clin Sci, Sharjah, U Arab Emirates

[49] Univ Sharjah, Coll Med, Sharjah, U Arab Emirates

[50] Univ Sharjah, Sharjah Inst Med Res, Sharjah, U Arab Emirates

来源：

LANCET RHEUMATOLOGY | 2023年 / 5卷 / 10期

基金：

英国惠康基金;

关键词：

AMERICAN-COLLEGE; CLASSIFICATION; PROGRESSION; CRITERIA;

D O I：

10.1016/S2665-9913(23)00211-4

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

Background Rheumatoid arthritis is a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease associated with disability and premature death. Up-to-date estimates of the burden of rheumatoid arthritis are required for health-care planning, resource allocation, and prevention. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, we provide updated estimates of the prevalence of rheumatoid arthritis and its associated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age, sex, year, and location, with forecasted prevalence to 2050. Methods Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was estimated in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2020 using Bayesian meta-regression models and data from population-based studies and medical claims data (98 prevalence and 25 incidence studies). Mortality was estimated from vital registration data with the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm). Years of life lost (YLL) were calculated with use of standard GBD lifetables, and years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated from prevalence, a meta-analysed distribution of rheumatoid arthritis severity, and disability weights. DALYs were calculated by summing YLLs and YLDs. Smoking was the only risk factor analysed. Rheumatoid arthritis prevalence was forecast to 2050 by logistic regression with Socio-Demographic Index as a predictor, then multiplying by projected population estimates. Findings In 2020, an estimated 17.6 million (95% uncertainty interval 15.8-20.3) people had rheumatoid arthritis worldwide. The age-standardised global prevalence rate was 208.8 cases (186.8-241.1) per 100 000 population, representing a 14.1% (12.7-15.4) increase since 1990. Prevalence was higher in females (age-standardised female-to-male prevalence ratio 2.45 [2.40-2.47]). The age-standardised death rate was 0.47 (0.41-0.54) per 100 000 population (38 300 global deaths [33 500-44 000]), a 23.8% (17.5-29.3) decrease from 1990 to 2020. The 2020 DALY count was 3 060 000 (2 320 000-3 860 000), with an age-standardised DALY rate of 36.4 (27.6-45.9) per 100 000 population. YLDs accounted for 76.4% (68.3-81.0) of DALYs. Smoking risk attribution for rheumatoid arthritis DALYs was 7.1% (3.6-10.3). We forecast that 31.7 million (25.8-39.0) individuals will be living with rheumatoid arthritis worldwide by 2050. Interpretation Rheumatoid arthritis mortality has decreased globally over the past three decades. Global age-standardised prevalence rate and YLDs have increased over the same period, and the number of cases is projected to continue to increase to the year 2050. Improved access to early diagnosis and treatment of rheumatoid arthritis globally is required to reduce the future burden of the disease.

引用

页码：E594 / E610

页数：17

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