Probabilistic assessment and expression of load factor design model for explosive blast loading

Explosive blast loads are subject to variability and uncertainty, but most current studies of building blast resistance are deterministic. To quantitatively assess the safety and reliability of a structure under explosion, the variability of the blast load needs to be quantified. A probabilistic analysis method of blast loads based on the finite element model and Monte Carlo simulation was proposed, and the applicability of this method was verified. The blast load probability model was developed for the scaled distances range from 1 m/kg1/3 to 40 m/ kg1/3. The effect of the mass safety factor of 20 % on the probability of exceeding the design blast load was assessed. At last, based on the established probabilistic model for the blast loads, the expression for calculating the load factor of any reliability level at any location was presented.