A new model based on coupling coordination analysis incorporates the development rate for urbanization and ecosystem services assessment: A case of the Yangtze River Delta

Understanding the dynamic relationship between ecosystem service supply and urbanization demand, and identifying the underlying influencing mechanisms are crucial for sustainable development in the global urbanization process. However, current studies mainly focused on the coupling coordination of current situation, rather than the dynamic system. Thus, we introduced the concept of the development coupling coordination degree (DCCD) to address the research gap. This study calculated the rates of the ecosystem service supply composite index (ESSCI) and urbanization development demand composite index (UDDCI) from 2000 to 2020 to construct the DCCD model in the case study of the Yangtze River Delta region. Subsequently, we analysed the inherent mechanisms causing regional differences in the DCCD. Our results indicated that (1) the rates of ESSCI and UDDCI showed spatiotemporal heterogeneity, the ESSCI rate had significant differences between the north and south, and the UDDCI rate decreased from east to west. (2) In 2000 and 2020, notable differences existed in the DCCD between the northern and southern region, with the north zone being lower. The situation improved between 2005 and 2015. (3) Global habitat quality had a significant impact on the development of coordination. In the north, annual water yield significantly influenced the development of coordination, while in the south, carbon sequestration influenced it. These factors are related to land use. We introduced the concept of rate into the old coupling to achieve global sustainable development goals.