Research on Influencing Factors of Residential Building Carbon Emissions and Carbon Peak: A Case of Henan Province in China

被引:8
|
作者
Yang, Xin [1 ,2 ]
Sima, Yifei [3 ]
Lv, Yabo [4 ]
Li, Mingwei [1 ]
机构
[1] Xinyang Normal Univ, Coll Tourism, Xinyang 464000, Peoples R China
[2] Sehan Univ, Grad Sch, Yeongam Gun 31746, South Korea
[3] Xinyang Normal Univ, Coll Architecture & Civil Engn, Xinyang 464000, Peoples R China
[4] Xinyang Normal Univ, Social Sci Div, Xinyang 464000, Peoples R China
关键词
residential building carbon emission; carbon emission reduction; Kaya-LMDI decomposition method; static carbon peak prediction; dynamic carbon peak prediction; ENERGY-CONSUMPTION; SECTOR; DECOMPOSITION;
D O I
10.3390/su151310243
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Buildings are considered to have significant emission reduction potential. Residential building carbon emissions, as the most significant type of building-related carbon emissions, represent a crucial factor in achieving both carbon peak and carbon neutrality targets for China. Based on carbon emission data from Henan Province, a large province located in central China, between 2010 and 2020, this study employed the Kaya-LMDI decomposition method to analyze seven driving factors of carbon emission evolution, encompassing energy, population, and income, and assessed the historical reduction in CO2 emissions from residential buildings. Then, by integrating Kaya identity static analysis with Monte Carlo dynamic simulation, various scenarios were established to infer the future evolution trend, peak time, and potential for carbon emission reduction in residential buildings. The analysis results are as follows: (1) The carbon emissions of residential buildings in Henan exhibited a rising trend from 2010 to 2020, albeit with a decelerating growth rate. (2) Per capita household disposable income is the main driving factor for the increase in carbon emissions, but the household housing purchase index inhibits most of the growth of carbon emissions for the residential buildings in Henan, with the total carbon emission reduction of residential buildings reaches 106.42 million tons of CO2 during the research period. (3) During the period from 2020 to 2050, residential buildings in Henan Province will exhibit an "inverted U-shaped" trend in carbon emissions under the three static scenarios. The base scenario predicts that carbon emissions will reach their peak of 131.66 million tons in 2036, while the low-carbon scenario forecasts a peak of 998.8 million tons in 2030 and the high-carbon scenario projects a peak of 138.65 million tonnes in 2041. (4) Under the dynamic simulation scenario, it is anticipated that residential buildings in Henan Province will reach their carbon peak in 2036 & PLUSMN; 3 years, with a corresponding carbon emission of 155.34 million tons. This study can serve as a valuable reference for the future development of low-carbon pathways within the building sector.
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页数:18
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