Analyzing the impact of drought on agriculture: evidence from Pakistan using standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index

The current study evaluates the impact of drought on Pakistan's agriculture sector at national and provincial scales during 2000-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3). Severe drought events were observed during 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2012, 2017, and 2018, which are used to demonstrate the impact of drought on agriculture. Balochistan and Sindh provinces are severely affected by drought due to their arid/hyper-arid climate nature. Drought severity is relatively high in Kharif season (ranging from severe to moderate) compared with drought in Rabi season. The average SPEI-3 during Kharif (Rabi) season across KP, Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces are - 0.48 to - 1.02 (0.47 to - 0.83), - 1.33 to - 1.68 (- 0.93 to - 1.36), - 1.21 to - 1.54 (- 0.76 to - 1.30), and - 1.73 to - 2.07 (1.54 to - 1.96), respectively. The results showed that Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces are most vulnerable to drought. As the drought index becomes more positive, the maize yield increases at both national and provincial levels. Drought has mixed effects on the rice yield. Similarly, the decline in drought severity leads to an increase in sugarcane, tobacco and wheat yields. The decrease in drought severity has a positive impact on the irrigated area under canals, wells and tubewells at both national and provincial levels. Similarly, an increase in the drought index also leads to an increase in the total cultivated and cropped area.