The Future in Anthropocene Science

The Anthropocene is the present time of human-caused accelerating global change, and new forms of Anthropocene risk are emerging that society has hitherto never experienced. Science and policy are grappling with the temporal and spatial magnitude of these changes. However, there is a gap in the transparency-and perhaps even in the awareness-of the profound role that Anthropocene science plays in shaping the structure and possibility of our future world. In this work, we explore three key features of Anthropocene scenarios, including: worlding capacity, values shaping what is possible, and refusal to look. We explore these three features using three cases of Anthropocene science including international energy scenarios, climate change projections, and the possibility of social collapse. We discuss how Anthropocene science modulates new risks and systematically, though perhaps inadvertently, entrains certain social-ecological futures. We find that clarity in these three attributes of Anthropocene science could enhance its integrity and build trust, not least in the arena of public policy. We conclude with recommendations for improving the interpretability and scope of Anthropocene science in the context of a growing urgency for accurate information to inform our collective future. Humanity has entered a new geologic epoch-the Anthropocene-as we unequivocally change the rhythms of planetary, ecological, and social dynamics. In the 21st century, civic society is asking science to provide unprecedented types of information to inform the present and guide future policy. The rapid uptake of Anthropocene scenarios as a part of this science has numerous, under-explored implications that require much greater attention. In this work, we argue that there are critical aspects of this Anthropocene scenario science that require introspection, particularly on the part of the scenario science community. By examining three case studies of Anthropocene scenario science, we draw out key characteristics that require greater attention. These are: (a) the unacknowledged capacity of some scientific actors to effectively steer the future; (b) the unarticulated inclusion of value preferences in scenarios; and, (c) the persistent unwillingness to consider certain types of socially-turbulent future possibilities. We conclude this analysis with recommendations for how the Anthropocene scenario science community can move forward. The Anthropocene context foregrounds a new collapse of the division between scientific modeling and possible interventionsA limited set of values are explored in Anthropocene scenarios and consequently entrain certain social-ecological futuresFoundational assumptions and interpretive decisions in Anthropocene scenarios require critical reflection on the conduct of science itself