Energy, power, and greenhouse gas emissions for future transition scenarios

Under the pressure for new policy and socio-ecological transformation, this work evaluates the future (2020- 2050) GHG emissions, considering a likely range of electric energy growth scenarios in the world's current energy system. An integrated model accounts for different penetration strategies of renewable energies, technological advancements, and variations in the fuel/renewables mix. Data of actual renewable/fossil share, GHG emission factors, and technology indicators, as plant load factors, were assumed from the Italian scenario. The study reveals that regardless of the current electric energy demand for the future, the transition to a massive penetration share of renewables as unique GHG reduction strategy will only partially abate the level of GHGs, and the zero-emission targets are definitely not feasible. A relevant result is the evaluation of future green power capacity, to satisfy the worldwide electrical energy demand. The scenarios foresee an unprecedented rate of the installation of generation plants from renewable sources, accompanied by a steep year-by-year variation of the required power capacity in operation. This prediction, in the temporal front chosen for this survey, poses the problem of the technological readiness of many conversion technologies, which makes it difficult to guarantee that renewable penetration programs can be matched with their technical feasibility.