Global, regional, and national trends of dementia incidence and risk factors, 1990-2019: A Global Burden of Disease study

Background An ample literature documents the growing prevalence of dementia and associated costs. Less attention has been paid to decreased dementia incidence in some countries. Methods We analyzed trends in age-standardized dementia, stroke, and ischemic heart disease (the triple threat) incidence rates and population attributable fraction of death and disability attributable to 12 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 51 regions using Global Burden of Disease 2019 data. Results During 1990 to 2019, dementia incidence declined in 71 countries; 18 showed statistically significant declines, ranging from -12.1% (95% uncertainty intervals -16.9 to -6.8) to -2.4% (-4.6 to -0.5). During 2010 to 2019, 16 countries showed non-significant declines. Globally, the burden of the triple threat attributable to air pollution, dietary risks, non-optimal temperature, lead exposure, and tobacco use decreased from 1990 to 2019. Conclusion The declining incidence of dementia in some countries, despite growing prevalence, is encouraging and urges further investigation.