Outcomes of first emergency admissions for alcohol-related liver disease in England over a 10-year period: retrospective observational cohort study using linked electronic databases

Objectives To examine time trends in patient characteristics, care processes and case fatality of first emergency admission for alcohol-related liver disease (ARLD) in England. Design National population-based, retrospective observational cohort study. Setting Clinical Practice Research Datalink population of England, 2008/2009 to 2017/2018. First emergency admissions were identified using the Liverpool ARLD algorithm. We applied survival analyses and binary logistic regression to study prognostic trends. Outcome measures Patient characteristics; 'recent' General Practitioner (GP) consultations and hospital admissions (preceding year); higher level care; deaths in-hospital (including certified cause) and within 365 days. Covariates were age, sex, deprivation status, coding pattern, ARLD stage, non-liver comorbidity, coding for ascites and varices. Results 17575 first admissions (mean age: 53 years; 33% women; 32% from most deprived quintile). Almost half had codes suggesting advanced liver disease. In year before admission, only 47% of GP consulters had alcohol-related problems recorded; alcohol-specific diagnostic codes were absent in 24% of recent admission records. Overall, case fatality rate was 15% in-hospital and 34% at 1year. Case-mix-adjusted odds of in-hospital death reduced by 6% per year (adjusted OR (aOR): 0.94; 95%CI: 0.93 to 0.96) and 4% per year at 365 days (aOR: 0.96; 95%CI: 0.95 to 0.97). Exploratory analyses suggested the possibility of regional inequalities in outcome. Conclusions Despite improving prognosis of first admissions, we found missed opportunities for earlier recognition and intervention in primary and secondary care. In 2017/2018, one in seven were still dying during index admission, rising to one-third within a year. Nationwide efforts are needed to promote earlier detection and intervention, and to minimise avoidable mortality after first emergency presentation. Regional variation requires further investigation.