An assessment of the vulnerability to climate change of winter wheat and summer maize production in Shandong Province, China

In China, Shandong province contains the most critical grain-producing areas and plays a key role in ensuring regional and national food security, especially through its winter wheat and summer maize production. Unfortunately, climate change has significantly degraded the growth and yield formation of winter wheat and summer maize in Shandong Province. To help address this situation, the present study assesses the vulnerability of climate change on winter wheat and summer maize production in Shandong Province. If an area is more vulnerable to climate change, it faces greater negative risk when the climate changes. First, we optimized the method of assessing vulnerability by the WOFOST crop model, which allowed us to assess the vulnerability of winter wheat and summer maize production under historical and future climate scenarios. The results show that, from 2007 to 2020, winter wheat production was moderately vulnerable in the eastern areas of central Shandong and mildly vulnerable in most areas of southern Shandong and in some areas of northwestern Shandong. In addition, the summer maize production was mildly vulnerable in some areas of northwestern, southwestern, and central Shandong. Under the RCP4.5 scenario from 2021 to 2050, winter wheat is expected to become more vulnerable in the future in most areas of the Jiaozhou peninsula, in western areas of northwestern Shandong, and in some areas of southern and central Shandong. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the areas of increased vulnerability would be larger and be mainly concentrated in northwestern Shandong, in some areas of the Jiaozhou peninsula, and in central and southern Shandong. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, summer maize production would become more vulnerable in most areas of the whole region, with the increase being greatest in central Shandong and on the Jiaozhou Peninsula. The vulnerability would increase significantly more under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario. The results of this study may provide a reference for adjusting planting structure and addressing adverse effects of climate change.