Ecological survey, population assessment and habitat distribution modelling for conserving Fritillaria roylei-A critically endangered Himalayan medicinal herb

In the Anthropocene epoch, there is a growing global conservation concern for rare, endangered, and threat-ened species owing to their increased vulnerability resulting in small population numbers and reliance on specialized habitats. To monitor and restore the waning populations of these species, predicting potential habitat maps is a valid strategy. Using population attributes and an ecological niche modelling approach, the current study aims to investigate potential distribution and cultivation hotspots for restoring the high-value and critically endangered medicinal herb, Fritillaria roylei (syn. Fritillaria cirrhosa D. Don), in the alpine region of Himachal Pradesh, India. Various populations from eighteen sites exhibited a significant change in phyto-sociological attributes as a result of various anthropogenic threats. The current potential habitats correspond with actual distribution data, and the mean Area Under Curve (AUC) and True Skill Statistic values were 0.876 & PLUSMN; 0.158 and 0.650 & PLUSMN; 0.008, which emerged as satisfactory results. The Jackknife tests indicated bio 6 (Min Temperature of Coldest Period) as the most contributing climatic variable along with bio 15 (Precipita-tion Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) contributing 26.2% to the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm model in governing the distribution of F. roylei. The model output showed that 48.47% area of Himachal Pradesh is suitable for F. roylei and 17.75% constitutes high and very high probability regions, suitable for the reintroduction of the species. Therefore, effective management strategies, based on scientific evidence, are urgently needed to conserve the remaining populations of this species. Conservation-ists can use the current findings to mitigate biodiversity losses and explore new populations of F. roylei, whilst policymakers can use the findings to implement the policy for the conservation of species with specific habitat priorities through the inclusion of species recovery programs. & COPY; 2023 SAAB. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.