Introducing the role of the municipality of residence in studying the secondary migration of international migrants. Evidence from Lombardy (Italy)

Secondary internal and international movements of migrants are receiving increasing attention in Europe while research has so far focused on the characteristics of individuals who remigrate or plan to re-emigrate, the attributes of the place that secondary migrants aim to leave have been less studied compared to other personal characteristics. This knowledge gap is primarily due to the fact that detailed information on the municipality of residence is largely unavailable in nationwide sample surveys. To fill this gap, after considering the time since migrants' arrival in Italy and previous internal mobility, we analyse the relationship between the characteristics of the municipality where migrants live and short-term migration intentions of return, onward and internal migration in a competing risk framework. We focus on ethnic concentration (community hotspots and coldspots) and classification into central and marginal areas as critical characteristics of municipalities. We used a unique pooled data set that includes seven cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2010 and 2016 by the Regional Observatory for Integration and Multiethnicity in the Northern Italian region of Lombardy. Municipal characteristics are strongly related to migrants' intentions: migrants who intend to move internally or to a third country are more likely live in urban, suburban, intermediate and peripheral areas and in the mountains. In contrast, the intention to return is not correlated with the characteristics of the municipality. The concentration of co-nationals is also uncorrelated with short-term migration intentions. We discuss the limitations of using a concentration indicator to study the relationship with secondary mobility.