Mission reliability modeling and evaluation for reconfigurable unmanned weapon system-of-systems based on effective operation loop

The concept of unmanned weapon system-of-systems (UWSoS) involves a collection of various unmanned systems to achieve or accomplish a specific goal or mission. The mission reliability of UWSoS is represented by its ability to finish a required mission above the baselines of a given mission. However, issues with heterogeneity, cooperation between systems, and the emergence of UWSoS cannot be effectively solved by traditional system reliability methods. This study proposes an effective operation-loop-based mission reliability evaluation method for UWSoS by analyzing dynamic reconfiguration. First, we present a new connotation of an effective operation loop by considering the allocation of operational entities and physical resource constraints. Then, we propose an effective operation-loop-based mission reliability model for a heterogeneous UWSoS according to the mission baseline. Moreover, a mission reliability evaluation algorithm is proposed under random external shocks and topology reconfiguration, revealing the evolution law of the effective operation loop and mission reliability. Finally, a typical 60-unmanned-aerial-vehicle-swarm is taken as an example to demonstrate the proposed models and methods. The mission reliability is achieved by considering external shocks, which can serve as a reference for evaluating and improving the effectiveness of UWSoS.