Impact of climate change on distribution of common leopard (Panthera pardus) and its implication on conservation and conflict in Nepal

Climate change is projected to create alterations in species distributions over the planet. The common leopard (Panthera pardus) serves an important ecological function as a member of the big carnivore guild, but little is known about how climate change may affect their distribution. In this study, we use MaxEnt to simulate the geographic distributions by illustrating potential present and future ranges of common leopard by utilizing presence records alongside important topographic and bioclimatic variables based on two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) scenarios. The goals of this study was to look into possible distribution ranges of common leopards due to climate change, as well as explore the implications for conservation and potential conflict with humans. At present, 4% of Nepal was found to be highly suitable for common leopards, 43% suitable, 19% marginally suitable, and 34% unsuitable. A large portion of the climatically suitable habitat was confined to non-protected areas, and the majority of the highly suitable habitat was encompassed by forest land, followed by agricultural areas. Elevation, mean temperature of driest quarter, annual precipitation, and precipitation seasonality were the variables influencing habitat suitability for the common leopard. A significant increase in marginally suitable habitat was observed in the high mountain region, indicating a shift of habitat in upper elevation areas due to the effects of climate change. We recommend timely management of these potential habitats to expand the range of this vulnerable species. At the same time, a combination of expanding new habitats and poor management practices could escalate humanleopard conflict. Therefore, further study on the impact of climate change on the distribution of prey species and proper habitat management techniques should be prioritized to mitigate conflicts.