Electricity scenarios for Hungary: Possible role of wind and solar resources in the energy transition

The paper examines the compatibility of wind and solar energy resources with projections of future electricity demand in Hungary. For such, we model the national electricity system and estimate surplus generation. The model makes use of hourly distributions of electricity demand and power generation. Simulations for the year 2033 (last scenario year) suggest that 46-47% of the projected electricity consumption can be supplied by wind turbines and solar PV technology with a surplus of less than 5% of yearly consumption. A suitable capacity ratio of wind to solar PV and the management of electric vehicle charging may reduce surplus electricity. It is shown by our EnergyPLAN model that the solar PV capacity should be 1.1 times the wind power capacity which is a huge contrast to the current situation where solar PV is almost 10 times the wind power capacity in Hungary.