Toward explainable heat load patterns prediction for district heating

Heat networks play a vital role in the energy sector by offering thermal energy to residents in certain countries. Effective management and optimization of heat networks require a deep understanding of users' heat usage patterns. Irregular patterns, such as peak usage periods, can exceed the design capacities of the system. However, previous work has mostly neglected the analysis of heat usage profiles or performed on a small scale. To close the gap, this study proposes a data-driven approach to analyze and predict heat load in a district heating network. The study uses data from over eight heating seasons of a cogeneration DH plant in Cheongju, Korea, to build analysis and forecast models using supervised machine learning (ML) algorithms, including support vector regression (SVR), boosting algorithms, and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The models take weather data, holiday information, and historical hourly heat load as input variables. The performance of these algorithms is compared using different training sample sizes of the dataset. The results show that boosting algorithms, particularly XGBoost, are more suitable ML algorithms with lower prediction errors than SVR and MLP. Finally, different explainable artificial intelligence approaches are applied to provide an in-depth interpretation of the trained model and the importance of input variables.