Radiomics using non-contrast CT to predict hemorrhagic transformation risk in stroke patients undergoing revascularization

Objectives This study explores whether textural features from initial non-contrast CT scans of infarcted brain tissue are linked to hemorrhagic transformation susceptibility. Materials and methods Stroke patients undergoing thrombolysis or thrombectomy from Jan 2012 to Jan 2022 were analyzed retrospectively. Hemorrhagic transformation was defined using follow-up magnetic resonance imaging. A total of 94 radiomic features were extracted from the infarcted tissue on initial NCCT scans. Patients were divided into training and test sets (7:3 ratio). Two models were developed with fivefold cross-validation: one incorporating first-order and textural radiomic features, and another using only textural radiomic features. A clinical model was also constructed using logistic regression with clinical variables, and test set validation was performed. Results Among 362 patients, 218 had hemorrhagic transformations. The LightGBM model with all radiomics features had the best performance, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.986 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.971-1.000) on the test dataset. The ExtraTrees model performed best when textural features were employed, with an AUROC of 0.845 (95% CI, 0.774-0.916). Minimum, maximum, and ten percentile values were significant predictors of hemorrhagic transformation. The clinical model showed an AUROC of 0.544 (95% CI, 0.431-0.658). The performance of the radiomics models was significantly better than that of the clinical model on the test dataset (p < 0.001). Conclusions The radiomics model can predict hemorrhagic transformation using NCCT in stroke patients. Low Hounsfield unit was a strong predictor of hemorrhagic transformation, while textural features alone can predict hemorrhagic transformation.e.