How to achieve the goal of carbon peaking by the energy policy? A simulation using the DCGE model for the case of Shanghai, China

The main issue of this study is what kind of energy policy should Shanghai adopt to achieve the goal of carbon peaking in 2025, especially the policy different from that of the whole country. This study applies the dynamic computable general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of energy policy on energy consumption structure, energy use, carbon emissions, and the macroeconomy for the case of Shanghai, a city in east China with a large oil consumption share. By comparing the economic and environmental effects of various energy policies, sug-gestions are provided for Shanghai to choose a better energy policy. The simulation results indicate that limiting coal consumption and developing nonfossil energy policies, which is the policy listed in Shanghai's 14th five-year plan, could not achieve carbon peaking by 2025. A combined policy could achieve the goal of carbon peaking. In addition, the combined policy helps to optimize the effect of macroeconomy. Limiting oil con-sumption is the key to achieve carbon peaking in Shanghai. Additionally, the simulation of oil supply policy is helpful for policy making, especially for the regions with a similar energy structure. This study finding is a contribution to the existing literature.