Examining the Impact of Real Estate Development on Carbon Emissions Using Differential Generalized Method of Moments and Dynamic Panel Threshold Model

The development of the real estate industry inevitably consumes large amounts of fossil energy and makes great contributions to China's carbon emissions. However, very few research studies have explored the intrinsic link and influence mechanisms between the rapidly growing real estate sector and carbon emissions in China. Hence, this study investigated the impact of real estate development on carbon emissions using a differential generalized method of moments and dynamic panel threshold models. The empirical results show that: (1) There is a non-linear relationship between real estate development and China's carbon emissions, first promoting and then inhibiting them with the increasing level of real estate development, but it will take a long time to reach the latter stage in the future; (2) The threshold effect of economic development levels on carbon emissions was identified with a threshold value of 9.904, and the positive impact of real estate development on China's carbon emissions is more significant in economically backward areas; (3) The threshold effect of population sizes on carbon emissions was identified with a threshold value of 7.839, and in areas with larger populations, the positive impact of real estate development on China's carbon emissions is more significant. The findings above extend the carbon emission literature by clarifying the threshold role of the economic development level and population size between real estate development and carbon emissions. Furthermore, the findings of this study are instructive for China to formulate energy-saving and emission-reduction policies according to local conditions and will ultimately contribute to achieving the goal of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality".