Cardiovascular risk factors in the elderly: a 10-year follow-up survival analysis

Aims Cardiovascular risk factors present a high prevalence and have an impact on the morbimortality of the elderly; however, studies evaluating the impact of cardiovascular risk factors in the elderly have had short follow-up times and have not allowed specific analyses of the effects of these factors in the aged population, including how they affect the survival of the elderly. This study aimed to analyse the survival of elderly individuals living in the community, considering the presence of cardiovascular risk factors. Methods and results A prospective 10-year follow-up was initiated in 2008 with a cohort of 418 elderly people living in a community in Central Brazil. The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to examine the association between survival and cardiovascular risk factors. The mean age of the participants was 70.6 (+/- 7.1) years; most participants were hypertensive (81.6%) and participated in irregular physical activity (44%), and 43.3% smoked. After a mean follow-up of 8.38 (+/- 2.82) years, 59.3% had survived and 34.1% had died; among the deaths, 14.1% were due to cardiovascular causes. Age [hazard ratio (HR) 1.067, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.027-1.109], hypertension (HR 3.178, 95% CI 1.144-8.826), and smoking (HR 2.235, 95% CI 1.253-3.987) were confirmed as risk factors for reduced survival, whereas physical activity was a protective factor (HR 0.456, 95% CI 0.206-1.007). Conclusion The results from this study highlight the need for educational policies towards hypertension and smoking prevention among elderly people, and participation in physical activity needs to be encouraged.