Understanding the effects of socio-ecological factors on trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services to support urban sustainable management: A case study of Beijing, China

Understanding the complex impact of socio-ecological factors on ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies (EST/ESS) is critical in delivering multiple benefits to various stakeholders. However, the impact mechanism is poorly understood. To portray more clearly the actual changes in EST/ESS resulting from the configuration of socio-ecological factors in urban development, this study proposes a methodological framework to quantify EST/ ESS for Beijing's zones and identify the mechanism by which EST/ESS interacts with socio-ecological factors. First, we quantified four key ecosystem services (ESs) that showed declining trends between 2000 and 2020. We then identified three landscape functional zones based on ES bundles and quantified EST/ESS intensity. Consistent with our prediction, there were significant differences of EST/ESS in ES pairs between zones, demonstrating the necessity of zoning management. We further applied structural equation modeling to analyze the mechanism of how socio-ecological factors influence EST/ESS. The pathways and intensities varied across regions, where vegetation cover and landscape configurations played mediating roles, whereas natural, physical, and biological factors, socioeconomic, and climatic factors, influenced EST/ESS mainly through indirect effects. Finally, based on the mechanism explored, we proposed strategies for zoning planning. These findings have practical implications for sustainable management in Beijing and other regions.