The politics of non-membership: How exclusion from international institutions shapes international relations

Preferential trade agreements (PTAs) are generally understood to promote political cooperation between members. I argue that institutional exclusion can damage political cooperation between members and non-members. Preferential trade agreements reflect strategic considerations, enabling countries to promote new trade norms, strengthen diplomatic networks, and redirect commercial flows to allies. Excluded countries are denied these benefits and may possibly be targeted by members. Thus, excluding PTAs may be perceived as threats. The record of the Trans-Pacific Partnership illustrates the theory. Statistical analysis of the near-universe of PTAs and countries' voting affinities in the United Nations General Assembly supports the argument.