Impacts of the war on prices of Ukrainian wheat

被引：3
作者：
Novotna, Lenka [1 ]
Rowland, Zuzana [1 ]
Janek, Svatopluk [1 ]
机构：
[1] Inst Technol & Business Ceske Budejovice, Ceske Budejovice, Czech Republic
来源：
AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS-ZEMEDELSKA EKONOMIKA | 2023年 / 69卷 / 10期
关键词：
correlation analysis; regression; Ukraine; war conflict; wheat price; TIME-SERIES; REGRESSION; GENOTYPES; PATH;
D O I：
10.17221/121/2023-AGRICECON
中图分类号：
F3 [农业经济];
学科分类号：
0202 ; 020205 ; 1203 ;
摘要：
The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict significantly affected wheat production and its export from Ukraine, mainly during the war outbreak. Since both countries rank among the major global wheat producers, the warfare dis-rupted wheat supplies, hastily pushing the prices. Based on the analysed data, we carried out research using multilayer perceptron networks. The findings suggest the biggest price increase between February and March 2022, witnessing wheat prices at about 1 400 USD per t. We predict a decline to the pre-war values until the end of 2025, estimating its rates between 600 USD and 800 USD per t. This price slump may involve signing an agreement on unblocking Ukrainian seaports, which would restore wheat exports. Yet, our survey is confined to historical data, which do not suggest any dramatic event that would alarmingly sway wheat prices.
引用
收藏
页码：404 / 415
页数：12
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