A Model-Data Comparison of the Hydrological Response to Miocene Warmth: Leveraging the MioMIP1 Opportunistic Multi-Model Ensemble

The Miocene (23.03-5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern-day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early-to-middle (E2MMIO; 20.03-11.6 Ma) and middle-to-late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5-5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model-data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by similar to 2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern-day tropics; mid and high-latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model-data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. This study looks at Earth's hydrological cycle during the Miocene (23-5 million years ago). During this period, the Earth's climate was 3-7 degrees C warmer than today, with carbon dioxide (CO2) estimates ranging between 400 and 850 ppm. Understanding how the hydrological cycle responded during warmer climate conditions can give us insight into what might happen as the Earth gets warmer. We analyzed a suite of Miocene paleoclimate simulations with different CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and compared them against fossil plant data, which gives an estimate of the average annual rainfall during the period. We found that during the Miocene global rainfall increased by about 2.1%-2.3% for each degree of warming. The models agree that the tropics, mid- and high-latitude, became wetter than they are today but have lower agreement on whether subtropical areas got wetter or drier as they warmed. Compared to proxies, models consistently underestimated how much rain fell in a year, especially in the mid- to high-latitude. This illustrates the challenges in reconstructing the Miocene's hydrological cycle and suggests that the models might not fully capture the range of uncertainties associated with changes in the hydrological cycle due to warming or other factors that differentiated the Miocene. A multi-model comparison of the hydrological cycle in early-to-middle and middle-to-late Miocene simulations is conductedModels generally agree on wetter than modern tropics, middle and high latitudes, but not on the sign of subtropical precipitation changesModel-data comparison shows mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes